Britain is on course to ending up being a '2nd tier' European country like Spain or Italy due to economic decline and a weak military that weakens its usefulness to allies, a professional has warned.

Research professor Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning brand-new report that the U.K. has actually been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misdirected policies that might see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at present growth rates.

The plain assessment weighed that succeeding federal government failures in regulation and bring in investment had actually triggered Britain to lose out on the 'markets of the future' courted by developed economies.

'Britain no longer has the commercial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,' he composed in The Henry Jackson Society's most current report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report evaluates that Britain is now on track to fall back Poland in regards to per capita income by 2030, and that the main European country's military will quickly exceed the U.K.'s along lines of both manpower and equipment on the current trajectory.

'The concern is that when we are reduced to a 2nd tier middle power, it's going to be almost difficult to return. Nations do not return from this,' Dr Ibrahim informed MailOnline today.

'This is going to be accelerated decline unless we nip this in the bud and have strong leaders who have the ability to make the tough choices right now.'

People pass boarded up shops on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier refills his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai utilizes a radio to speak to Archer teams from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery throughout a live fire range on Rovajärvi Training Area, throughout Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the federal government's decision to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but warned much deeper, systemic issues threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as an internationally influential power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain's effectiveness to its allies is now 'falling behind even second-tier European powers', he warned.

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'Not just is the U.K. predicted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but likewise a smaller army and one that is not able to sustain implementation at scale.'

This is of specific concern at a time of increased geopolitical tension, with Britain pegged to be amongst the leading forces in Europe's fast rearmament job.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine today, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European country to install a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is a huge oversight on the part of subsequent governments, not simply Starmer's issue, of stopping working to purchase our military and basically outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,' he told MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting tiredness of offering the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now has to base on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to really lead European defence. But none of the European countries are.'

Slowed defence costs and patterns of low performance are absolutely nothing new. But Britain is now also 'failing to adjust' to the Trump administration's shock to the rules-based global order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The previous consultant to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the organizations when 'secured' by the U.S., Britain is reacting by damaging the last vestiges of its military might and economic power.

The U.K., he said, 'seems to be making increasingly pricey gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has actually been the source of much analysis.

Negotiations in between the U.K. and Mauritius were started by the Tories in 2022, but an agreement was revealed by the Labour federal government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security believe thank cautioned at the time that 'the move shows worrying tactical ineptitude in a world that the U.K. federal government explains as being characterised by terrific power competition'.

Calls for the U.K. to offer reparations for its historic role in the servant trade were rekindled likewise in October in 2015, though Sir Keir Starmer stated ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth nations that reparations would not be on the agenda.

An Opposition 2 primary battle tank of the British forces during the NATO's Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak throughout a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin assessed that the U.K. seems to be acting against its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of threat.

'We comprehend soldiers and missiles however stop working to totally envisage the danger that having no option to China's supply chains might have on our capability to react to military aggression.'

He suggested a brand-new security model to 'enhance the U.K.'s tactical dynamism' based on a rethink of migratory policy and danger assessment, access to rare earth minerals in a market controlled by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and self-reliance through financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without instant policy modifications to reignite growth, Britain will become a decreased power, reliant on stronger allies and vulnerable to foreign coercion,' the Foreign Policy columnist said.

'As global economic competitors heightens, the U.K. needs to decide whether to embrace a bold growth program or resign itself to permanent decline.'

Britain's commitment to the concept of Net Zero might be admirable, but the pursuit will hinder development and obscure strategic goals, he warned.

'I am not saying that the environment is not important. But we merely can not afford to do this.

'We are a country that has stopped working to buy our economic, in our energy facilities. And we have significant resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, including the use of small modular reactors, might be an advantage for the British economy and energy self-reliance.

'But we have actually stopped working to commercialise them and clearly that's going to take a considerable quantity of time.'

Britain did present a new financing model for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists including Labour political leaders had insisted was key to discovering the money for expensive plant-building tasks.

While Innovate UK, Britain's innovation firm, has actually been heralded for its grants for little energy-producing companies in the house, business owners have alerted a larger culture of 'threat aversion' in the U.K. stifles financial investment.

In 2022, incomes for the poorest 14 million people fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file image of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has regularly failed to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian risk', permitting the trend of handled decrease.

But the resurgence of autocracies on the world stage threats further weakening the rules-based international order from which Britain 'advantages immensely' as a globalised economy.

'The danger to this order ... has actually developed partly since of the lack of a robust will to safeguard it, owing in part to deliberate foreign attempts to overturn the recognition of the true hiding hazard they position.'

The Trump administration's warning to NATO allies in Europe that they will need to do their own bidding has gone some way towards waking Britain approximately the urgency of buying defence.

But Dr Ibrahim cautioned that this is inadequate. He prompted a top-down reform of 'essentially our whole state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the well-being state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are essentially bodies that take up immense quantities of funds and they'll simply keep growing considerably,' he told MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS budget and it will truly not make much of a damage. So all of this will need fundamental reform and will take a lot of nerve from whomever is in power since it will make them out of favor.'

The report outlines recommendations in radical tax reform, pro-growth migration policies, and a restored focus on securing Britain's role as a leader in modern markets, energy security, and worldwide trade.

Vladimir Putin talks to the governor of Arkhangelsk region Alexander Tsybulsky during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File image. Britain's economic stagnation might see it soon become a '2nd tier' partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 stores closed their doors for great in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration's insistence that Europe pay for its own defence has actually cast fresh light on the Old Continent's alarming scenario after years of sluggish growth and reduced costs.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research examined at the end of in 2015 that Euro area economic performance has been 'controlled' because around 2018, illustrating 'diverse challenges of energy reliance, producing vulnerabilities, and moving worldwide trade characteristics'.

There remain extensive inconsistencies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has hit organizations tough and forced redundancies, while Spain has actually grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This stays fragile, however, with residents progressively upset by the viewed pandering to foreign visitors as they are evaluated of economical accommodation and caught in low paying seasonal tasks.

The Henry Jackson Society is a foreign policy and national security think thank based in the United Kingdom.

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